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The Future of Natural Gas: A Darwinian Analysis

Marchetti, C., 1987

Technological Forecasting and Social Change , 31 (2):155--172

Abstract

Market substitution analysis has been a reliable tool for describing the dynamics of energy markets during the last 200 years. It is used here to project the evolution of the world energy system during the next 200 years. The exercise draws its interest from the extraordinary stability of socioeconomic processes, which becomes manifest when appropriate parameters are chosen to measure them and a Darwinian conceptual frame is used to organize them. We have worked out a thousand cases. In order to read the startling results correctly, one should remember Edison christened his 10-kilowatt dynamo "Jumbo." Our energy system will grow beyond today's imagination requiring a rethinking of its structure to make it compatible with the context.

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